重庆社会科学

我国人口老龄化在不断演变过程中存在显著的空间非均衡性。选用Dagum基尼系数分解法测算和分解我国人口老龄化空间非均衡程度,并构建面板数据模型分析我国东、中、西部人口老龄化影响因素。从人口老龄化空间非均衡程度来看:西部空间非均衡程度最大,东西空间非均衡差距最大;人口老龄化空间非均衡程度在2010年以前主要来源于各空间之间非均衡差距Gnb,2010年以后却主要来源于空间超变密度Gt。从人口老龄化空间非均衡的影响因素来看:人均GDP、城镇化率、文盲率会加重我国人口老龄化程度,而人口自然增长率、产业结构优化、人口性别比会减弱我国人口老龄化程度。东、中、西部空间总体情况与我国整体情况基本一致,不同在于西部空间经济发展会弱化人口老龄化程度、人口自然增长率会加重人口老龄化程度。

The age structure of China's population has undergone significant changes, and the proportion of the elderly population in the total population has continuously increased. At the same time that China's aging is becoming more and more serious, China's aging is also facing another problem-there is a significant spatial imbalance in the process of population aging. In order to reveal the spatial imbalance of population aging, explore the contribution of spatial imbalance in East, Central and West to the national imbalance, and analyze the impact of four main factors of economy, population, society and education on the spatial imbalance of population aging. The paper uses ArcGIS software to map the spatial part of China's population aging to visualize the population aging spatial imbalance. On the basis of this, the Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition method is used to measure the spatial imbalance of the aging population in China, East, Central and West. Degree, and decompose the contribution of the spatial imbalance of the eastern, central and western regions to the non-equilibrium of China's overall population aging space; further papers to construct spatial panel data models of China, East, Central and West to analyze the factors affecting the population aging spatial imbalance.From the perspective of the imbalance of population aging space: the western space is the most unbalanced, and the east-west space imbalance is the largest; the population aging spatial imbalance is mainly from the non-equilibrium gap between different spaces before 2010, after 2010 But mainly from the spatial hyper-density. From the influencing factors of the population aging spatial imbalance: the level of economic development,urbanization rate, and illiteracy rate will promote the aging of China's population, while the natural population growth rate, industrial structure upgrading, and gender ratio will weaken China's population aging. The overall situation of the eastern, central and western regions is basically the same as that of China. The difference is that the development of the western space economy will weaken the aging population and the natural population growth rate will increase the aging of the population.