重庆社会科学

人多地少是中国的基本国情农情。合理调配相对有限的水土资源，生产市场所需的产品，更好满足人民群众需求，是保障国家粮食安全面临的重大战略任务。在粮食供需长期处于紧平衡的状态下，受人口负增长、老龄化，以及收入增长驱动食物消费升级等因素叠加影响，“十五五”时期中国粮食需求将呈现口粮需求持续减少、饲料粮需求保持高位的发展态势。如若保持当前生产结构，粮食品种间和品种内部供需错配的状况将更加突出。并且，“十五五”时期粮食产需形势面临世界政治经贸关系进入新常态、农业新质生产力加速赋能、可持续发展要求提高等关键变量影响，存在供需错配及其衍生的种粮收益偏低、主产区发展滞后、产业链延伸不够、绿色发展水平不足等现实问题。为此，基于“稳粮、增饲、扩油、延链、强体”的粮食生产结构调整思路，提出短、中、长三个时期的调整重点任务举措，以及针对性政策建议，为更好保障国家粮食安全提供参考。

A large population but limited land resources are China's fundamental national and agricultural conditions. Optimizing the allocation of limited resources to meet the needs of the people is a crucial task in ensuring national food security. Under the background of long-term tight balance of grain supply and demand, factors such as negative population growth, an aging population, and the upgrading of food consumption are driving China's grain demand pattern toward a characterized by "continuously declining for staple food demand, and sustained high for feed grains". If China maintain the current grain production structure, the mismatch between grain supply and demand will become more pronounced. We recommend that the government should align with demand trends, understand key factors affecting grain supply and demand, adjust and optimize the grain production structure, and address issues such as supply and demand mismatches, low incomes in grain production, lagging development in major production regions, insufficient extension of industrial chains, and inadequate levels of green development. To this end, we proposed an adjustment strategy centered on "stabilizing staple grain, increasing feed grain, expanding oilseed, extending industrial chains, and strengthening the agricultural operating entity". Meanwile, we also outlined key tasks and measures for short, medium,and long-term periods.