重庆社会科学

党的十九大报告提出:"推动新型工业化、信息化、城镇化、农业现代化同步发展","从2020年到2035年使得人民生活更为宽裕,中等收入群体比例明显提高,城乡区域发展差距和居民生活水平差距显著缩小"。通过运用1978—2018的年度数据,构建SVAR模型,使用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分析等方析估计农民经营性收入、工资性收入、转移性收入、财产性收入和"四化"间的关系。结论表明农民前三类收入和"四化"间存在长期的协整关系,城镇化、工业化和农业现代化是农民经营性收入的格兰杰原因,"四化"均是农民工资性收入和财产性收入的格兰杰原因,城镇化和信息化是农民转移性收入的格兰杰原因。在此基础上,本文提出了一些对策建议。

In the report to the 19th national congress of the communist party of China, it was proposed that "Promote the simultaneous development of new-type industrialization, informatization, urbanization and agricultural modernization", "From 2020 to 2035, people's lives are more affluent, the proportion of middle-income groups has increased significantly, and the gap between urban and rural development and the standard of living of residents has narrowed significantly," Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to make clear the relationship between farmers' income and the "four modernizations".Using the annual data from 1978 to 2018, the SVAR model was constructed to analyze the relationship among the farmers' operating income, wage income, transfer income, property income and the "four modernizations". Meanwhile, co-integration test, granger causality test, impulse response function and variance analysis were successively used.The conclusion is that there is a long-term co-integration relationship between the income of farmers in the first three categories and the "four modernizations".Urbanization, industrialization and agricultural modernization are granger causes of operating income, "four modernizations" are all causes of wage income and property income, and urbanization and informatization are causes of transfer income.The specific countermeasures are as follows: the "four modernizations" promotes the increase of farmers' income and the increase of farmers' income promotes the development of the "four modernizations".